Early MLB Betting Trends

We're not even three weeks into the majorhe's clambered to a 5.25 ERA. The Devil Rays
league baseball season, but already several storyteam ERA stands at a harrowing 6.23 number.
lines from a betting perspective have been in play.The bright side is a young nucleus of position
Low scoring games seem to be the currentplayers with sweet upside including Carl Crawford,
theme as 105 games have gone UNDER the total,Elijah Dukes, BJ Upton and Delmon Young.
while just 88 have played OVER the total. ColdFew would argue that the Phillies are a complete
weather has been the catalyst for the lowermess right now, as they look up in the standings
scoring trend with many games being played atat the Washington Nationals. Many penciled in
below average temperatures, especially acrossPhiladelphia to own one of the best starting
the Midwest and East Coast. No question, pitcherspitching staffs in the National League. Brett Myers
hold the advantage with the cooler temperatureshas been the ringleader for bad pitching with an
as they are the one player on the field that isoutrageous 8.82 ERA, and the Phillies brass, in a
able to stay warm with constant activity. Invery questionable move, have since vanquished
addition, we have seen some extreme windMyers to the bullpen.
gusts. Games played in windier conditions areFrom a side or team perspective, the free
conducive for more scoring, but the ball simplyspending Chicago Cubs have found themselves
does not travel as far when it is cold as has beenstagnant to start the campaign. The Cubs are
the case early on. This year many will point tocurrently 5-9 on the season down over 6.5
baseball's more stringent drug testing rules ofbetting units and are once again overvalued by
hitters as being 'juiced' down. There may be somethe marketplace. This can happen when a
validity to that sentiment. In fact, 20 teamsfranchise spends over $300 million in the
feature a team ERA at 4.00 or less, which is aoff-season looking to find lightning in a bottle. Of
sight not normally seen in recent times.course, as the Cubs have found repeatedly, it's
There are other theories at work as well. Lasteasier to draw up a contender than to field a
year, the World Baseball Classic wreaked havoccontender. It is intriguing seeing as how many of
on pitching staffs across the league early in thethe Cubs additions have played well, with Ted Lilly
season as the pitchers who took part in thefeaturing a 2.37 ERA and Jason Marquis owning a
Classic fell out of their normal spring trainingsurprising 2.65 figure. Let's say the jury is still out
routines. Many suffered injuries that hurt overallon the 2007 Cubs. The Cubs may not have had a
pitching depth and forced pitchers that werehot start, but we have seen another NL team
simply not ready for the every day grind of theemerge as a possible contender early this year.
major league season into action. This equated toThe Atlanta Braves have regained their swagger
an increase in runs last year.after a disappointing 79-83 2006 season. The
A handful of teams have really struggled at theBraves sit back on top of the National League
dish offensively including St. Louis, Oakland,East with 10-4 record, but show a modest four
Chicago White Sox and the Angels. The Angels,units of betting profit. When breaking down the
A's and White Sox have trended a combined 30-9Braves the answer for the turnaround is easily
towards the UNDER. The A's rank dead last infound in the bullpen. Last year the relief pitching
slugging percentage at .329 and there is not aconstantly killed the Braves as they blew a
single Oakland player with more than one homestaggering 29 save opportunities. This year the
run in the early going. To be fair, they have facedcrew has blown just one save while sporting a
above average pitching and this team is well4-0 record. Give credit to the Braves decision
known for their early season struggles.makers as they brought in live arms from both
A slow start by Albert Pujols has hampered thesides of the mound including Mike Gonzalez and
Cardinals, however he's picked up the pace theRafael Soriano. In addition, starter Tim Hudson
last few days. Pujols hasn't really been thelooks to be in his past Oakland form with a
dilemma for the Cardinals however as Jimminuscule 0.86 ERA in three outings. With their
Edmonds is slugging a paltry .220, while an injurykey off-season additions and a strong blend of
has hampered Scott Rolen as well.youth and experience, the Braves looked poised
Still, there are teams that are scoring runs orto regain their foothold as the best team in the
perhaps better stated, allowing runs, and trendingNL East.
OVER the total. Philadelphia, Florida and TampaThe baseball season is long, 162 games long, and
Bay have trended OVER the total at a combinedmany trends will play out over the upcoming
28-11 rate. Coincidence? Probably not as themonths. What holds true today doesn't necessarily
Devil-Rays and Phillies rank one-two at themean it will hold true tomorrow, but it is
bottom of the team ERA standings. Once again,interesting to note the wild start to the 2007
this Tampa Bay franchise simply cannot pitchcampaign.
outside of young-gun Scott Kazmir, while even